I’m very frustrated looking at the data on what is going on with COVID-19 in the US. I’m frustrated because this virus spreads when people are circulating together, and we’re opening up and having more people circulate together. My home county of Santa Cruz hasn’t even finished opening up, and it is already experiencing it’s second wave.
The source of that graph is here. I know Santa Cruz has relatively low numbers, it is the smallest county in California – however this info is unmistakable at this point.
The data for California (found here) is even more amazing – in the sense that there does not appear to even be a peak in cases yet. It is absolutely not the time to be easing shelter at home restrictions if we want to beat this virus. The headline I wrote for this blog is accurate for Santa Cruz County, statewide the first wave isn’t even over yet.
Nationally, the next week or so will tell us a lot. Will the recent rise in total new cases continue, or will the slightly falling overall trend keep up? With the amount of people protesting and generally circulating again, I’m guessing it will go up. But the next week, and possibly the week after that, will tell us if that guess is correct. Here is the data from the CDC:
Looking at national numbers isn’t terribly useful for fighting this disease, at least not in a country as large and diverse in population density as ours. But national numbers do tell us an overall trend. What’s alarming is that we’re nowhere near staunching the tide of new people getting this disease, yet we’re opening up as if we are. I’m planning accordingly, I hope you all are as well.
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